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Oil price, mad oil price: How long can you still go up to upsurge more?
From;    Author:Stand originally
Liu Tao: Gold invests analyst qualification to evaluate secretary-general of committee of experts; Shanghai source answer business management consults limited company general manager; Researcher of part-time job of research center of economy of Fudan University China.
⊙ compere: Zou Min gives birth to Le Jiachun
Petroleum supply and demand is long-term the trend slants pressing subject matter by congenial capital short-term change evil had fried a head
Compere: Oil price already stood on 140 dollars! Oil price, mad oil price, still can go up much taller, how long to go up? Last year, we ever rose the connection such as oil, dollar, gold, heavy goods, had made deepness conversation for many times. This problem already had a fever to cause the condition of disintegrate of global price system now, and appear at present the country of two digit inflation and area team also are expanding quickly. How to do?
Allegedly, these two days of held G8 meetings, also headaching for this. How will see this problem? I feel, this oil price has a fever, congenial capital uses petroleum supply and demand long-term trend slants pressing subject matter, undertake short-term change evil fried suspicion, do you say?
Liu Tao: Right. To oil price problem, need to try to analyse from main area really, such ability see clear problem go out after all where.
Since 2002, price of global heavy goods enters bovine city cycle. 2007 since second half of the year, the heavy goods price that is core with crude oil rises considerably continuously, bring about aggravate of global inflation situation, the most serious problem that becomes economy of current whole world to be faced with.
From supply demand relations and economy main area looks, epicycle oil price rises to be changed with global town really accelerate with industrialized process about. After 2002, the developed country restores in decline of economic bubble cracked anew stage by stage, beautiful couplet store last lower interest act stabilized stock market on one hand, also started estate market on the other hand, the consumptive ability that enhancing the United States, restored while economy grows, what drove a dollar again is successive devalue.
The dollar depreciates is a historic event, from go up at all changed domain of competition ability of global manufacturing industry, accelerated the move of global manufacturing industry to system of the economy in the development that heads with China, drove the overall course that global industrialization and town change thereby, the whole world is many population is transferred to the city from the country, the situation of insecurity of supply and demand of global foundation resource that appeared to be core with the sources of energy first on human history.
On one hand, as a result of new increase production can construction is periodic and longer, original upriver resource productivity satisfies the requirement of constant growth completely hard; On the other hand, grow as the abidance of demand, what reserves of odd to resource of main mineral products ascertain spends career is anxious stronger and stronger also. Element of supply and demand is the condition of the mainest base that price of main heavy goods rises continuously after 2002. Since 2002, price of futures of American Comex crude oil never rises to 20 dollars to 150 dollars around, go up exceeded 600% , london metal bourse of cupreous futures go up exceeded 500% , the CRB index that represents value of main heavy goods from 180 around rise to more than 600, go up adjacent also 250% .
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