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Balata demand is strong abate
From;    Author:Stand originally
Although at present perch of natural balata price moves, and do not eliminate innovate again high probability, but the development trend of supply demand relations supports balata price to continue to rise hard. Look for a long time from which, of domestic balata demand strong abate. This kind of abate body now the following respects:
It is export growth momentum apparent fall after a rise. According to statistic of customs total office, export of cover tyre of tire of before this year 5 months increases 6% compared to the same period, amplitude is compared last year fall after a rise of the corresponding period 15 percent, other rubber products exports a level to also have fall after a rise more. According to data of statistic of Chinese Society of Rubber Industry, industry of rubber of its member company exports delivery cost to grow 17.05% compared to the same period first quarter this year, than 2007 amplitude fall after a rise 10.6 percent.
2 it is fall after a rise of momentum of domestic output growth. While the exit of products of of all kinds rubber such as tire increases fast fall after a rise, domestic car output also is in decelerate. According to statistic, accumulative total of before 2008 5 months, countrywide car output grows 18.1% compared to the same period, than last year the corresponding period adds fast slow down 4 percent. Suffer its to affect, the case of balata product birth such as domestic tire is not quite good. According to statistic of national statistic bureau, 1-5 month accumulative total, countrywide tire output grows 12.9% compared to the same period, growth range is compared last year fall after a rise of the corresponding period 12 percent, may tire crop amplitude is fall after a rise more nearly 28 percent, other rubber products is added fast also have slow down. Situation of decelerate of output of predicting balata product is turned round hard inside year, annual balata consumes amplitude under go up year of level.
3 it is costly case to consuming demand restrain. Price of international market oil blazes new trails repeatedly tall, cost is produced in what increased balata, push prices of tall whole rubber while, also arose to oneself demand great restrain. As global oil price climb all the way litre, each country finance already can'ted bear heavy burden, decrease in succession even the price allowance with oily to finished product throw the helve after the hatchet. Home of predicting second half of the year also can shake control of case of finished product oil price stage by stage, bring about oil price to climb litre. When the person that use is faced with real market value, high oil price can have been been opposite certainly consumptive demand generation of Yu Wangcheng is very large restrain. High oil price still will raise the use cost of motor vehicle greatly, reduce the demand of motor vehicle and travel course of development, control the consumption level of the rubber products such as tire. Be in the United States for instance, approach every gallon as gas price of 4 dollars " day price " , more and more having car a group of things with common features turns to bicycle and public traffic. Same argument, if price of Chinese home gas also conforms with the international market, so spread all over big in car travel quantity of the city will decrease greatly. Do not determine the impact of the existence of the element and other side because of this just about, make domestic car sale successive since this year annulus of a few months is compared drop. Periodic or 3 years of boom of Chinese car city will be terminative, arrived 2008 2009 may be integral car city two more difficult years. The depression of car market, subsequently and the waits for balata consumption to tire namely major impact that come.
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